The equity markets rebounded strongly in April, following a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran that sent, momentarily, the oil price back below USD 100.-/bbl. As mentioned in prior publications, the movement in the oil price is the only thing that matters for the time being, as it will drive the evolution of inflation and consequently, of the economy. At the time of writing, the price of Brent is USD 109.-/bbl. It was on the rise again last week, reaching as much as USD 126.- intra-day, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This continues to fuel investors’ fears over the likelihood of stagflation. Peace talks between both nations have been unsuccessful, so far and the bellicose rhetoric remains highly hostile.